November 2026 Market Commentary

We Want Santa!

Last month we highlighted that October tends to be a challenging month for markets, but the 4^th quarter tends to be strong as November and December bring in what is dubbed “the Santa Claus Rally”.  Well, sure enough October was pretty bad as the Halloween scaries spooked the market along with some mid-term election anxiety. 

As we step into the end of the year, we want to make sure we keep our focus on the big picture and not distracted by the Reddit posts and speculation about the next market move.  Let’s dive in.

Source: https://ycharts.com/

If we don’t get too stuck in the short-term volatility, 2026 has been a continuation of a strong multiyear run around the transformative nature of Artificial Intelligence.  But there is growing concern that we are in a 1999 style technology bubble that may end in tears and disaster. 

Some concerns are true:  increasing borrowing rates for some AI infrastructure players, massive debt raise from hyperscalers, circular investing from suppliers and buyers, and elevated prices in certain areas (especially the private markets). 

But there are also some significant differences, and understanding these differences might be helpful in finding the opportunities through the message board conspiracies. For example:

• Real earnings growth at historic levels
• Elevated but reasonable market valuations (prices have gone up less than earnings have grown)
• The majority of the debt issuance is through companies with huge revenues, balance sheets, and cash flows

Another Historic IPO on Deck

On October 26, Anthropic (the company behind Claude) publicly filed its S-1 to go public on the Nasdaq under the ticker “ANT,” in what could be the largest IPO in history. I’ve read the coverage closely, and three numbers tell the tale: $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026 (more than triple all of 2025), an 85% implied gross margin, and a net revenue retention rate of roughly 900%, meaning existing customers are spending nine times more with Anthropic than they did a year ago. For perspective, the median public cloud software company sits around 108%.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/26/anthropic-ipo-live-updates-ai-s-1-filing.html

There’s also an $80.7 billion net loss in the filing, which sounds terrifying until you look under the costume: about $72 billion of it is a non-cash accounting charge tied to convertible notes rising in value as the company’s valuation soared. But this is one of those accounting formalities.  If you sold a friend a lottery ticket for a dollar and the jackpot kept growing, you’d have to book the growing value of that ticket as your own loss, even though no cash left your pocket.

Anthropic is spending a lot of money though (almost $5 billion per quarter in compute) and has committed to an enormous amount of spending in future contracts ($500 billion according to the S-1).  Those figures create a lot of pressure on the company to keep performing and growing at a breakneck pace.

Finally, a Public AI Pure Play!

Anthropic will be the first real public window into how AI growth and use is really doing.  Currently, the hyperscalers blend AI revenue into other divisions, and the best we get out of them when they report is headlines like “AI products grew 800%!”  Anthropic will become the large cap benchmark of how AI is really doing, and we will have an itemized receipt each quarter of spending, revenue growth, retention, and margins that can be used to back into how the overall industry is doing.  The pure plays help us price the opaque ones.

What We Need to Keep an Eye On

Now, in the spirit of the season, let’s spend a few minutes in the dark basement. Because the bear case for the AI trade is real, and pretending otherwise is how you end up as the character who investigates the noise.

First, the bond market is flashing amber. The AI buildout is being financed with historically massive debt issuance (Goldman Sachs estimates nearly $500 billion of AI-related debt in 2026 alone, with JPMorgan projecting $4.1 trillion through 2030), and credit spreads on the riskiest AI names are widening fast.
Source: https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/default/202610150110RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_L4N4610DV_1

Credit default swap spreads on CoreWeave have blown out past 1,000 basis points, with Oracle at 288 and SoftBank at 424. Apollo’s Torsten Slok argues the market is repricing hyperscaler credit fundamentals, not just jittery sentiment. When the debt market starts charging more to insure against default, it’s the financial equivalent of the creepy music starting before anything has actually jumped out.

Second, the stocks are feeling it. The “neoclouds” (CoreWeave, Nebius) lost over 30% of their value in October, Nvidia-backed Firmus withdrew its IPO entirely, and SK Hynix scrapped the Solidigm listing. The IPO window that Anthropic is diving through is one that others have recently found slammed shut.

Third, and this is the parallel that deserves the most respect: the co-investing. Nvidia invests in OpenAI, which buys Nvidia’s chips. Amazon invests $13 billion in Anthropic, which commits to spend on AWS. Anthropic pays SpaceX $3.1 billion a month for compute, and Anthropic is SpaceX’s largest AI customer. The IMF explicitly flagged these “circular financing arrangements” in its October Global Financial Stability Report as a channel where stress at one company could cascade. This rhymes with the late-1990s, when tech companies invested in other tech companies who then bought their equipment, and it meant that when earnings disappointed, they disappointed everywhere at once. Earnings in a cycle like this are simply more volatile, in both directions.

So, What Does It Mean?

When the AI upswing started, the concern for investors was missing out and earnings volatility only seemed to be on the upside.  Recent headwinds reminded investors that this ride will be bumpy and have some cyclical swings and some good money thrown after bad. 

But that is normal in cycles, and that is not a reason to sit it out and only worry about the losses.  There is a lot of opportunity, and if you are smart, this volatility creates incredible chances to buy great companies on short-term sentiment shifts.

It is important to keep in mind that the companies who are primarily funding all the infrastructure growth and spending in AI are all successful companies with very successful businesses outside of the AI story.  They don’t have to invest in datacenters; they are choosing to invest because they see potential. 

To sum it up:

• Great year for equities, tough year for bonds, and yields that finally give cautious investors a real alternative.
• A pure-play AI listing that will price the entire theme in real time.
• Real credit-market warning signs that argue for selectivity, not absence.

There is something out there for everyone! If you have questions or want to talk about how to navigate this market, give us a call; we love this stuff!

Jordan Kaufman

Chief Investment Officer

Green Ridge Wealth Planning

Disclosure:
Green Ridge Wealth Planning, LLC is a registered investment adviser. The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment/tax advice. The investment/tax strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment/tax strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision(s). You are responsible for consulting your own investment and/or tax advisor as to the consequences associated with any investment.

The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of the AUTHOR, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of Green Ridge Wealth Planning, LLC, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.