April was a headline-heavy month that delivered a rollercoaster ride for investors. There’s a lot to unpack, but we’ll break it down into key facts and then offer a bit of interpretation.
Market Highlights
- S&P 500: -0.7% in April, -4.9% year-to-date. Volatility was the real story.
- MSCI All Country World Index (ex-US): +3.7% in April, +9.3% year-to-date. (Source: YCharts as of April 30th)
- Federal Reserve: Holding interest rates steady as they assess inflation and tariff impacts.
- IMF Global Growth Outlook: Lowered 2025 forecast to 2.8% (from 3.3%) citing trade tensions, inflation, and uncertainty. (Source: CNBC)
Uncertainty Served Up in Generous Portions
As the saying goes, “the market hates uncertainty.” In April, it felt like uncertainty was being handed out like breadsticks at Olive Garden.
The Trump administration’s abrupt tariff announcements sparked confusion. Early messaging was inconsistent, leaving CEOs, consumers, and investors scrambling to make sense of the plan.
Markets calmed when the administration backtracked slightly, granting exceptions and delaying most tariffs. Investors interpreted this as a sign that market reactions still influence the White House.
A Wild April Timeline
- April 2: Sweeping tariffs announced → S&P 500 drops to -14.0% month-to-date.
- April 9: 90-day tariff delay → S&P 500 jumps +9.5% in a single day.
- April 10–21: Renewed uncertainty and Fed concerns → S&P 500 falls -6.5%.
- Late April: AI optimism and strong earnings return → S&P 500 rallies +10.2%.
Where Things Stand Now
We’re left with a market facing:
- A disliked and unclear policy path,
- Confidence that the White House may step in if markets stumble, and
- Strong dip-buying behavior from investors.
The result? A likely rangebound U.S. stock market—not crashing but also struggling to hit new highs. That said, the swift rebound suggests there’s still plenty of buying interest, and we may see great long-term opportunities ahead.
International Stocks Take the Lead
While U.S. policy remains murky, global investors are still putting money to work—particularly in international stocks.
April saw international indices push to new highs, supported by strong momentum and investor flows. We won’t overanalyze the “why.” What matters is – they’re going up.
The Fed Stays Cautious
On April 16, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation is easing and the economy is stable. However, he emphasized “heightened uncertainty and downside risks,” especially around tariffs.
The Fed remains data-dependent and is in “no hurry” to cut rates—meaning they’ll wait for clear, confirmed trends before making moves. (Source: Reuters)
Expect Choppy Economic Data
Over the next few months, economic data may look erratic. Here’s why:
- Past data won’t reflect the delayed tariffs.
- Businesses and consumers may pull forward purchases to beat future tariffs.
- Once tariffs kick in, spending could slow down quickly.
This distortion makes it harder for the Fed to get clear signals, increasing the chances of policy delays or hesitation.
So, Where Does This Leave Us?
We see both challenges and opportunities ahead:
- Artificial Intelligence & Productivity: Long-term trends remain intact. Pullbacks create chances to invest in future leaders at more attractive prices.
- Interest Rates: Likely to stay elevated for now. Inflation data may be noisy due to front-loaded demand and tariff effects.
- International Stocks: Likely to remain in favor. With fundamentals hard to pin down, technical momentum and fund flows could dominate.
Don’t Let Short-Term Noise Derail Your Long-Term Plan
Executive actions and policy shifts may not stick. That’s why it’s important not to overhaul a well-constructed financial plan every time the market hiccups.
A good plan accounts for this kind of volatility. If you want to take a closer look at how your strategy is positioned—or just talk through what’s happening—we’re here to help.
Jordan Kaufman
Chief Investment Officer
Green Ridge Wealth Planning
Disclosure:
Green Ridge Wealth Planning, LLC is a registered investment adviser. The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment/tax advice. The investment/tax strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment/tax strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision(s). You are responsible for consulting your own investment and/or tax advisor as to the consequences associated with any investment.
The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of the AUTHOR, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of Green Ridge Wealth Planning, LLC, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.