April 2026 Commentary: Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Month

By Jordan Kaufman

April 2026 Commentary:  Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Month

When I was a wee child, my parents got me a book called “Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day”.  It’s a story of a boy who can’t catch a break….he goes to sleep with gum in his mouth and wakes up with it in his hair.  There is no toy in his morning cereal.  He had to sit in the middle seat on the way to school. Oh, and his mom forgot to put dessert in his lunch.  He was indeed having a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day.

Well, the market had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad March.  But instead of waking up with gum in our hair, we woke up with a sticky situation in the Strait of Hormuz.  Instead of no toy in our morning cereal, we got no job growth in the February report. Instead of getting stuck in the middle seat on the way to school, we got stuck with inflation as oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel.  Oh, don’t even ask if there is dessert…

_{Performance (as of March 31st, 2026; source ycharts.com)}       

So, what gives? 

March had a little bit of everything investors hate:

• conflict in the Middle East,
• oil prices ripping higher,
• inflation concerns reappearing like the villain in a horror movie that definitely should have stayed dead,
• and interest rates moving higher right when markets were hoping for some relief.

That’s not exactly the kind of setup that inspires confidence.

And underneath all of that, there were already some frayed nerves in the market around AI, jobs, private credit, and whether the economy is actually slowing or just vying for attention.

In other words: investors were already on edge. March just gave them a reason to freak out more efficiently.

What actually mattered for the market.

The market’s Achille’s Heel was oil, spiking from around $65 per barrel to around $100 per barrel. This is a very predictable response to war in the middle east.

When oil spikes, it creates problems fast. It pushes up transportation costs, pressures business margins, and generally acts like a tax on consumers. That doesn’t automatically mean recession, but it does make life more annoying for everyone — including the Federal Reserve.

And that’s where things get tricky.

A lot of the optimism coming into the year was built around the idea that inflation would keep cooling, rates would gradually come down, and the Fed would have room to ease. But when oil jumps, that clean story starts to get messy.

So now markets are being forced to ask a less fun question: “What if rates stay higher for longer?”

The 10-Year Treasury Yield went from under 4% to 4.3%, signaling investors’ longer-term expectations around higher interest rates. 

Let’s take a step back and try and figure out what this ultimately means for markets.

1. Oil is likely to be higher for longer (possibly much longer than the market is currently predicting).  The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway near Iran, is effectively shut, and even if it were to reopen tomorrow, passage through it is likely to be much more expensive, slow, and even dangerous. 
2. Interest rates are likely to stay elevated.  A lot of optimism centered around a new Federal Reserve Chairman and rate-cutting cycle.  The spike in oil and inflation has reignited discussion of possible rate hikes.
3. Stocks have been surprisingly resilient in the face of what could be more drawn out and impactful war than the administration is signaling.

This all adds up to higher volatility, and we don’t expect things to change in the coming months. However, this will create some buying opportunities if you can keep your gaze past the smoke of war. This disruption is likely to hang around, but it will not stop some of the positive trends we have been tracking that keep pushing this market higher.  The market does not play politics over the long-term. 

Remember that markets and companies have had a lot of practice dealing with chaos lately.  In the last five years, companies have learned how to navigate through supply chains and consumer changes with COVID, along with figuring out supply chain adjustments and shortages after the Russian invasion of Ukraine (which is still ongoing).  The Iranian conflict is a big deal, but global markets have had a lot of training for this, and so we caution investors from becoming too myopic about downside risk. 

We are not downplaying the state of affairs, but global markets are not exactly rookies anymore when it comes to adapting under pressure. Importantly, periods like this tend to create dislocation, which is just a fancier and more socially acceptable way of saying stuff goes on sale. That doesn’t mean we run around buying everything with a pulse. But it does mean volatility often creates opportunities for investors who can keep their eyes on the road instead of rubbernecking every headline.

Jerome Powell’s Optimistic, Positive, Pretty Good, Kinda Interesting Speech.

Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, had a speaking engagement at Harvard University (yes, Haaaaaavvvvvard, how do you like them apples) on March 30^th.  I was stuck getting my car serviced, so I listened to the whole thing (I know, my life is exciting).  While he didn’t talk too many specifics, I think he did a great job summarizing some of the market’s concerns.

1. Productivity and AI: “My observation is that these large language models make people much more productive. I feel like it’s making me more productive because I can learn things really quickly. And I talk to my son and others who are out there in the world, and I think if you use it well, it’s making you more productive. So, I think you’re in a situation where you need to invest the time to really master the use of these new technologies and that should stand you in good stead.”
2. Job Market and AI: “And again, it makes people more productive. I did talk to a CEO in tech world who said the marginal benefit of a new employee in this world is actually very high.”
3. Financial Resilience: “Between Dodd-Frank and the Basel agreements, we pretty dramatically raised the amount of capital and liquidity that the largest firms and other banks have. And I think that’s been a good thing. I think they’re also much more transparent and more aware of their risks.”
4. Private Credit: “Private credit is something… we’re watching super carefully as everyone is. We’re talking to the people in the industry and investors… I think we understand it. We’re monitoring it for, looking for things that might lead to greater contagion or greater losses or connections to the banking system. You’re again, not going to hear people say, ‘Oh, there’s no problem here,’ because that’s a jinx. But nonetheless, it’s something that we’re following very carefully.”
5. Debt Load and Sustainability (and evidence Powell has a sense of humor): “The federal government debt is growing substantially faster than our economy, and that ratio is going up. And you know, in the long run, that’s kind of the definition of unsustainable. The level of the debt is not unsustainable, but the path is not sustainable. And so, it’s really important that we get back to. . .we don’t have to pay the debt down. We just need to have, you know, primary balance and begin to have the economy actually growing better—growing more quickly than the [debt]. It will not end well if we don’t do something fairly soon. This is not the Fed’s job, of course, and I pretty much limit myself to those high-level points, which essentially everyone ignores.”

_{Citations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqeGhgbEwr0}

In short, AI is increasing productivity, which should help the economy grow faster which should hopefully outpace the growth of debt one day (if we can ever control our spending as a nation).  Despite fears of AI taking all our jobs, Jerome is optimistic that AI will just pave the way for new jobs with different skills (I agree).  And as we go through this bumpy and disruptive process, we have a more resilient financial system that has a lot of tools to help us avoid catastrophe.

Conclusion: 

While global instability is capturing the news today, don’t lose focus to the incredible story behind corporate performance. Companies are spending huge amounts of money on the next generation of productivity, and you don’t want to miss it over a spike in oil prices.  We have seen middle eastern conflicts before, and we know they aren’t fun, but we have never seen anything like AI before, so DON’T LET YOURSELF GET DISTRACTED!!!!!

Jordan Kaufman
Chief Investment Officer
Green Ridge Wealth Planning

Disclosure:
Green Ridge Wealth Planning, LLC is a registered investment adviser. The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment/tax advice. The investment/tax strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment/tax strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision(s). You are responsible for consulting your own investment and/or tax advisor as to the consequences associated with any investment.

The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of the AUTHOR, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of Green Ridge Wealth Planning