January 2025 Commentary: Signals, Noise, and Market Insights

It has been an exciting start to the year, so let’s jump right in!

What does this all mean?  When markets are up in the month of January, that is generally a good sign.  If we take the first bullet point around market action, it is generally a positive data point.  As for the politics, we stand by our past comments that the new administration is going to invite more volatility to the picture with its aggressive policies and disruptive nature, but the market seems to be optimistic about how it will all shake out.  The Federal Reserve I would put in the slightly negative column since they seem to be slowing down their accommodative stance, but that makes general sense when mixed with the fiscal policies that are being pushed forward. 

DeepSeek-R1’s release has been called a “sputnik moment”, a colloquial reference suggesting a public fear that a country has fallen behind another in technological advancements.  There are still some questions to be answered here.  OpenAI, the company that created ChatGPT, has accused DeepSeek of stealing its intellectual property.  The new large language model (LLM) release by DeepSeek claims to be a cheaper, faster, and more efficient experience.  Supposedly, DeepSeek-R1 was developed in two months and cost less than $6 million to build.  This is massively less money and time than most AI developers would have thought, implying that American companies are overspending on building out their AI platforms. 

Things being cheaper and more efficient is generally a good thing.  We don’t interpret this news or release as a reason to panic but instead would view it as a potential positive for things to come.  It is unlikely American companies would be comfortable entrusting their customers data to a Chinese AI company, so this isn’t an immediate threat to existing projects or cash flows.  What it does do is increase the demand for further innovation in this space for the players already involved.  There are some lessons to be learned with how DeepSeek-R1 is able to do what it does, and the magic seems to be more in how they approach the problem than secret ingredients.

Earnings are incredibly important in trying to figure out where things go from here.  However, with so much uncertainty in the issues mentioned above, it is hard to separate the signal from the noise.  We continue to monitor how the numbers and guidance roll out, but macroeconomic issues and policies seem to have the greatest impact on overall market direction at the moment. 

If we were to tie it all together with a nice neat bow, things are off to a good start for 2025 despite what seems like a whirlwind of craziness.  We continue to view sell offs as buying opportunities, but we also think market rallies are a good time to consider rebalancing and positioning for future dips.  Another way to say it is “stay calm amidst the chaos”.  While we might not love every headline or news story, brighter days are ahead.

Jordan Kaufman

Chief Investment Officer

Green Ridge Wealth Planning

Disclosure:

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and reflects the opinions of the author as of the date of publication. The views expressed may change without notice and may not reflect the opinions of Green Ridge Wealth Planning as a whole. The information presented is not intended to constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice and should not be relied upon as such. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consult with a qualified professional for guidance tailored to their specific circumstances.

Green Ridge Wealth Planning is an investment advisor registered with FINRA and the SEC. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. For more information, please refer to our Form ADV, which is available upon request.

Green Ridge Wealth Planning, LLC is a registered investment adviser. The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment / tax advice. The investment / tax strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment / tax strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. You are responsible for consulting your own investment and/or tax advisor as to the consequences associated with any investment.

The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of AUTHOR, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of Green Ridge Wealth Planning, LLC, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

2025 First Quarter Commentary

As we close the books on 2024, I can’t help but reflect on the past five years. What a turbulent period it has been: COVID-19, supply chain disruptions, soaring housing prices, an historic rise in inflation in 2022, extreme Federal Reserve policies with the steepest interest rate increases in modern history, and now an awkward normalization (if anything can be considered “normal” anymore).

Top Financial Takeaways for 2024

  1. Stock Market Surge: The S&P 500 rose 23%, with the Nasdaq up nearly 29%, driven by robust economic growth, enthusiasm around Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Federal Reserve rate cuts.
    • Source: yCharts
  2. Economic Resilience: U.S. GDP grew by 2.9%, defying high interest rates and unemployment, while inflation slowed significantly, supporting a "soft landing" scenario.
    • Source: yCharts
  3. Global Growth: The global economy expanded by 3.2%, with easing inflation and stronger trade, although geopolitical risks and elevated interest rates persisted.
    • Source: KPMG Global Economic Outlook Dec 2024
  4. AI and Tech Boom: AI innovation fueled gains in tech stocks, boosting investor optimism throughout the year.

Interest Rates and Inflation

Interest rates and inflation have been major areas of concern for the economy and markets. COVID-19 caused significant shifts in demand, extreme stimulus measures, and stress on global supply chains. Add the war in Ukraine, and the result was a massive spike in inflation followed by a surge in interest rates.

As 2024 progressed, demand normalized, stimulus effects waned, and global supply chains began to stabilize. Consequently, the Federal Reserve reduced the overnight borrowing rate from 5.25–5.5% at the start of the year to 4.25–4.5% currently. They have signaled plans for further rate reductions over the next 12 to 18 months.

However, markets remain unconvinced that the fight against inflation is over. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data suggest that inflation remains somewhat "sticky" at around 2.7%, still above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%. There are also concerns that the new administration’s policies—such as tariffs and changes to immigration policy—could impede inflation’s march back to target levels.

The chart below illustrates the gap between market expectations (yellow dotted line) and the Federal Reserve’s forecast (blue dotted line) for future rate cuts. Markets are pricing in 50–75 basis points in cuts, compared to the Fed’s projection of closer to 150 basis points.

The U.S. Stock Market

The S&P 500, introduced in 1957, has delivered an annualized total return of 10.5% over its 67-year history (assuming dividend reinvestment). Of course, returns have varied significantly by decade:

It’s worth noting that the strong returns of the last 15 years can largely be seen as a natural rebound from the challenging decade that preceded them. History shows that periods of significant economic and market stress—such as the high inflation of the 1970s—can be followed by extended stretches of robust growth, as evidenced by strong performance during the 1980s and 1990s. This pattern reminds us that recovery and growth often emerge after difficult times.

The S&P 500’s 28% total return in 2024 follows a 24% return in 2023. Such strong back-to-back years are rare, making it reasonable to approach 2025 with some caution. While 2023’s rally stemmed partly from the dramatic selloff in 2022, 2024’s gains were driven primarily by a robust economic environment, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and excitement surrounding AI.

Election Impact

2024 Presidential election results sparked immediate market reactions. Since Election Day, the market has gained 5–6%, slightly above the median post-election return of 4%. Some sectors have emerged as clear winners based on anticipated policies of the new administration, including financials, cryptocurrencies, and mergers and acquisitions.

Looking Ahead to 2025

Concerns:

  1. Global Trade Risks: Potential trade wars and tariffs under the new U.S. administration could disrupt global markets and increase inflation.
  2. Inflation Persistence: Despite moderation, inflation remains above central bank targets, complicating monetary policy and potentially keeping interest rates elevated.
  3. Valuation Challenges: High equity valuations, particularly in tech, face risks from slowing earnings growth and waning AI enthusiasm.

Optimism:

  1. Economic Growth: The U.S. economy is expected to grow steadily, supported by strong consumer spending and a resilient labor market.
  2. Technology Trends: Continued innovation in AI and tech could drive productivity and market gains.
  3. Monetary Easing: Central banks are likely to maintain accommodative policies, supporting equities and bonds.

Artificial Intelligence and Innovation

AI dominated corporate America in 2024, surpassing even the election in importance. This trend reflects broader innovation themes, including big data, mobile technology, and automation, which continue to drive the U.S. economy.

One intriguing insight from a recent AI-focused talk suggested that manufacturing and production-oriented businesses, rather than traditional tech companies, may be the early beneficiaries of AI advancements. As corporate profits begin to shift, investors may need to adapt equity allocations to capture emerging opportunities.

Final Thoughts on 2025

The stock market remains in a strong uptrend, but signs of potential new leadership are emerging. Industries burdened by regulation and those with strong merger and acquisition potential may take center stage. Optimism among CEOs, both public and private, suggests a “pro-business” shift in sentiment.

At the same time, significant policy shifts from the new administration and the Federal Reserve could create market volatility. By viewing volatility as an opportunity rather than a threat, we can navigate these fluctuations and position ourselves for long-term success.

Wishing you a happy and healthy New Year!

Jordan Kaufman
Chief Investment Officer
Green Ridge Wealth Planning

Disclosure:

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and reflects the opinions of the author as of the date of publication. The views expressed may change without notice and may not reflect the opinions of Green Ridge Wealth Planning as a whole. The information presented is not intended to constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice and should not be relied upon as such. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consult with a qualified professional for guidance tailored to their specific circumstances.

Green Ridge Wealth Planning is an investment advisor registered with FINRA and the SEC. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. For more information, please refer to our Form ADV, which is available upon request.

Green Ridge Wealth Planning, LLC is a registered investment adviser. The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment / tax advice. The investment / tax strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment / tax strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. You are responsible for consulting your own investment and/or tax advisor as to the consequences associated with any investment.

The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of AUTHOR, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of Green Ridge Wealth Planning, LLC, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

December Commentary

It has been less than a month since the election results, and I am already experiencing news overload. These days, even someone’s random predictions seem to make headline news. While you may assume I’m referring to politics, the financial news media is no better. Headlines like, “So-and-so predicts a crash is coming!” or “The man who forecasted XYZ says Bitcoin will hit a billion!” dominate the cycle, and feed into clickbait culture.

Key Financial Market News Headlines – November 2024:

There is a lot of the noise, and we aim to sift through it for you. While it may feel like major shifts have occurred, not much has changed fundamentally in the past month. What has changed significantly are expectations, which have driven major market moves.

Market Shifts and Expectations The markets seem to anticipate regulatory easing under the incoming administration. Here are some key indicators reflecting this sentiment:

  1. Cryptocurrency Rally: Cryptocurrencies have surged, partially driven by Trump’s association with NFTs and the broader crypto scene. There’s speculation that digital currencies and assets will receive favorable regulatory treatment.
  2. Financial Sector Gains: Financial companies, particularly investment banks, have rallied strongly. This is largely due to expectations of a mergers-and-acquisitions boom and potential rollbacks of banking regulations.
  3. Small- and Mid-Cap Rally: Small- and mid-cap companies have seen significant gains. While this reflects optimism about “America First” policies, much of the rally is in companies speculated to be potential takeover targets.

Tariff Threats and Their Implications President-elect Donald Trump has threatened significant tariffs on imports from key trading partners, including Canada, Mexico, and China. Historically, Trump has used tariff threats as negotiating tools rather than concrete policy actions. Here’s a closer look at the details:

Federal Reserve Reaction Amid this uncertainty, attention has turned to Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve. At the most recent Fed meeting, Powell emphasized that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates. He warned investors not to expect rate cuts at every meeting, citing the strong economic environment as a reason to moderate the pace of cuts. While he did not specifically address concerns about tariffs and inflation, the tempered expectations for rate cuts have been a positive development for markets heading into 2025.

Looking Ahead There’s never a dull moment in the markets! We expect the year to close on a high note, bolstered by the traditional “Santa Rally.” That said, surprises are always a possibility. Wishing everyone a wonderful holiday season! Our next commentary will be in 2025.

Best wishes,

Jordan Kaufman

Chief Investment Officer

Green Ridge Wealth Planning

Jordan Kaufman (CIO) Speaks at NJ Investment Management Intersect Conference

Chief Investment Officer, Jordan Kaufman, CFA, CFP was invited to speak at the New Jersey Investment Management intersect Conference on Thursday, July 18th. Jordan covered the following topics:

Asset Allocation: Achieving the Optimal Mix

See Jordan's 5 takeaways from the day below:
"There is so much innovation in the financial industry! We heard from over 10 different companies and speakers that all head strategies that are really offering a different approach on how to add value to portfolios and shift risk. Left a lot to think about!

There is no one “right” way to do things; there is more than one way to make money out there! I didn’t agree with every approach I heard at the conference, but I felt that they were all well thought out and competent approaches to how to manage money. The real trick is finding the one that makes the most sense for you.

Reducing risk (in the form of volatility) continues to be a key theme in the industry. Many of the presentations focused on how to dampen volatility and source returns from somewhere other than traditional market beta (exposure).

There isn’t a lot of “whistling past the graveyard” in the industry! Back in the financial crisis, the financial industry caught a lot of flack for not properly assessing risk and identifying where it might be hiding in the shadows. I sensed from the conference that the industry has a healthy appreciation for risk, and continues to evolve how it thinks about it.

The general quality of professionals in the financial industry continues to improve! I was very impressed by the sophistication and quality of attendees. It has been a difficult industry since the financial crisis, and they say only the strong survive…..toast to the strong!"

GRWP Reacts to Tumultuous Market

Hi Green Ridge Family!  

If you saw today's news, you probably noticed a down market with a lot of red.

What’s going on?  Today's actions, combined with some selling that happened at the end of last week, has made for a tough few days in the market. Economic weakness, the yen carry trade, concern over Fed policy – whatever you want to attribute it to, today's movement was abrupt and startling. But let’s look at the reality of where we are now and what to take into consideration when we have moments like this.

We want to remind everyone that from days like these, great future returns are forged! We have been actively looking for opportunities during this market sell off and we will continue to do so.  We are doing the exact opposite of sitting on the beach or hiding under our desks. We woke up this morning with ice in our veins ready to take advantage of the storm!  

We know that this is unsettling and can be stressful, but please be confident that we are fighting for you and your financial future.  As with all moving markets, this too will pass, and we will be stronger for it!  Until then, we will find opportunities where they present themselves, both to buy and to sell.  

Financial Planning Can Be Overwhelming. Here Are 8 Steps to Get You Started.

Creating a financial plan can feel like an overwhelming task. There is paperwork to gather, future scenarios to consider and decisions to make. As a result, it sometimes gets placed far down on our “to-do” list, making way for seemingly more urgent and less complicated tasks. However, it is something that requires attention. Our clients who DO plan and have good habits are often in a much better position to achieve their financial goals than those who don’t.

Here is a short checklist of things to consider, whether or not you have started the financial planning process:

Financial plans evolve throughout life. Having one is critical to get a sense of where you are, what your goals are, and how to achieve them. Our team is ready to guide you.

Charitable Planning Ideas to Consider During Tax Season

With tax season in the rearview mirror some are sighing from relief, and some may be wondering what they could have done differently to lower their taxes. It is never too early, or too late, to speak with your financial advisor about tax strategies, overall financial planning for the year ahead, and charitable giving. Here are some topics to consider having a conversation about surrounding philanthropic giving strategies for 2024.

First, an overview of the 2024 Giving and Tax Landscape:

Situations You May Find Yourself in During Tax Season:

A stock in your portfolio goes way up and you find yourself wondering, “what should I do with it” and “what are my tax implications?”

You become subject to an RMD on your IRA and you do not need the income this year nor do you want to take the income because of the tax implications.

Let’s say you are considering converting a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. You may be hesitating because of the income taxes that will be owed on the amount that is to be converted.

Whether you have found yourself in a situation like this or not, it is important to stay up to date with the ever-changing, yet omnipresent, tax landscape. Charitable giving is an effective area in mitigating personal taxes, taxable events, and your overall financial efficacy. Leveraging deduction limits, appreciated non-cash assets, and exploring options like the qualified charitable distribution (QCD), you can optimize your philanthropic impact while minimizing tax burdens. As such, it is important to have a team of trusted professionals to help educate and guide you on and through these complex scenarios.

Feel free to give us a call at (973) 554-1770, email us via myplan@greenridgeweal.wpenginepowered.com, or submit a message through our website.

Source: Five charitable planning ideas to share during tax season – Charles Schwab.

Quarterly Commentary

The first quarter of 2024 is behind us, and this year is shaping up to be full of excitement!   

We already have some great things to report!  Our team has grown with two terrific additions, Luciano Betman as Client Account Associate and Leigh Buchmann as Executive Assistant. Our monthly Investment Committee webinars via Zoom continue to be popular and feature guest speakers for you all.  Bobby launched his podcast, Business Unchained, tune in and listen to insightful stories straight from business owners and be inspired in business and in life.  Finally, Bobby and I are humbled and proud to have been named NJBIZ 2024 “Leaders in Finance!” 

When it comes to the market, global politics, and economic data, the presidential election is sucking all the oxygen out of the room.  It is impossible to hear anything without someone adding a political bend to it.  So, as much as I can, I want to just give a quick state of the union. 

  1. Equity markets have had a strong first quarter, with the S&P rising over 10%.   
  1. Bitcoin rose over 60% in the first quarter!  We think Bitcoin is a great litmus test for market participants’ overall appetite for risk. With Bitcoin making new highs, it seems the market is “risk on”. 
  1. The economy is strong.  Unemployment logged a new low in March at 3.8%.  Both consumer and corporate spending is rising.   
  1. Inflation is hanging in between 3 – 4%.  The 8% inflation days seem to be behind us, and the 2% days are not returning in any quick fashion.   
  1. Interest rates have done little to nothing in the first quarter.  The Federal Reserve is on hold, and while there is speculation they may cut rates in June, points 1-4 above would disagree. 

With this backdrop, it makes sense that the rally from 2023 has continued. If this trend continues, we expect the market to follow suit. The market rally has stabilized, and at this point, you would need a curveball to cause a break.  But that doesn’t mean we should sit back and kick our feet up, because anyone who pays even half attention to the news knows that the unexpected is always lurking around the corner! 

We want to address some concerns surrounding the market going up quickly and outlier risks. As Bobby likes to say in his videos, “lazy asset management has no place here!” At GRWP we are always actively watching markets and making shifts; and looking for opportunities to take advantage of, getting out of things that aren’t delivering strong risk adjusted returns, and finding ways to earn higher rates of return.  We are not just sitting by and waiting for things to play out.   

Building Good Habits: 

A little over three months into the year, how many people are sticking to their New Year’s resolutions?  It is difficult to swap bad habits with good ones.  We all struggle with this, and part of the reason is that willpower is like any other muscle; we need to exercise it and train it.  If your willpower muscle is weak, it will become exhausted, and you may find yourself falling back into less desirable habits. 

Habits and willpower also play a role in investing.  This is something we probably don’t talk enough about, so let’s spend a minute pointing out where our willpower gets tested, and highlight some good habits that can improve our chances of success. 

Will Power Killers: 

  1. Negativity:  Whether news, a friend that just won’t stop telling you everything wrong with the world, or your own mindset; negativity will wear you down.  We don’t suggest being foolishly positive, but instead, spend an equal amount of time thinking about what can go right as you do about what can go wrong
  1. Procrastination:  When we procrastinate, we are often giving in to our short-term desires versus our long-term goals.  This is not helping us build up willpower.  Don’t wait another month to hit your savings goals, or review your budget, or start that diet or exercise plan.  When you procrastinate in one area, it tends to bleed into all the other things you are trying to accomplish. 
  1. Lack of Clear Goals:  You need to have goals, keep track of your progress towards those goals, and have a system for rewarding yourself when you hit checkpoints on the way. The key is finding the right things to measure and frequency to improve your chances of achieving those goals. 

Understanding some of the things above can help us identify and overcome our challenges.  Again, this is true in all things in life, not just finances.  If you are negative, procrastinate, and don’t have clear goals, good luck accomplishing anything.  If you turn those around into optimistic, diligent, and goal oriented, you will be amazed at how much you accomplish. 

So, what are the habits we can work on to help us achieve our financial goals?  While those habits vary by person, below is a short list of easy things to incorporate if you are not already doing so. 

  1. Keep your credit cards paid off.  No credit card debt.  Absolutely none.  If you have credit card debt, it needs to be extinguished yesterday, or you must have a clear plan on how to extinguish it soon.  If you can’t do this, see the section on “Willpower” above. 
  1. Really comb through your budget each year.  You may find some saving opportunities, some things you don’t need, or even just better awareness. 
  1. Review your balance sheet once a quarter.  This will help remind you how your current savings and budget are impacting your net worth.  
  1. Schedule time each year to talk to your Accountant and Advisor about tax saving opportunities.  Our most successful relationships for helping to lower people’s tax obligations are when we are actively collaborating with their CPA. 

Have a great Spring! 

Jordan Kaufman 

Chief Investment Officer, Green Ridge Wealth Planning 

Navigating Social Security: A Guide to Maximizing Your Benefits

Social Security can make a big impact on your financial plan. Oftentimes, deciding when to start claiming the benefit can be overwhelming. Clients often ask us the following: Should I claim it as soon as I turn 62?  Does it make sense to wait longer until full retirement age (see graph below)? What are the tax implications? Are there benefits to pushing it back to when I turn 70?

Our analysis below works to shed some light on the topic and includes tax implications, and the tools and information we use to answer those questions. Let’s start with the basics.

Accumulated Income Overtime. Example $1,200 monthly income at 62, $1,700 monthly income at FRA, and $2,200 at age 70. Assuming 90 years old is the life of the plan.

It is always important to gain a better understanding of financial decisions. As always, we are here to light the way. Please let us know if you have any questions about Social Security or would like to schedule a meeting to discuss this in more detail.

Here are a few links to resources that are helpful to look over:

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/guide-on-taking-social-security

https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10024.pdf

January Commentary

2024 is off to the races with January coming to a close.  Our monthly commentary is meant to touch upon the month’s trending news and give our perspective on “what’s happening?” and “why should we care?”.  Let’s go over the few topics that have really driven headlines:

S&P 500:  With still a day left to the month, S&P is up about 4%, continuing the strength from last year’s strong finish. The gain was driven mostly by strong economic data, continued lower unemployment, and lower inflation numbers (The Fed-preferred inflation gauge of PCE was lower but, CPI, the more popular number, was a bit higher).  Fourth-quarter earnings are being released; results have been mixed but generally good. Some of the concerns we are hearing are focused on the upcoming election, forward looking earnings, conflict around the globe, and the high debt on both the public and private side.

Political Royal Rumble: We urge everyone not to let their political views play too much into their investing views. Trump? Haley? Biden? The market would say, “who cares?”.  While the controlling powers help to write and change legislation, the makeup of the Legislative Branch bears more weight than who gets elected. Voting-politics is a money-losing strategy. Vote with your politics, invest with your intellect.

Global Conflict:  Red Sea tensions have been a focus of the market for 24 months now, and while we will keep an eye on it, business has become pretty good at managing supply chains. This was tougher during Covid when supply-chain issues impacted inflation tremendously.  Let’s remember, a major driver of that situation was the lack of personnel to unload the ships that did make it to the coast.  While global tensions are high, the market seems to be shrugging it off. Political headlines can’t always be translated to our markets. 

National Debt Crisis or Modern Monetary Theory?: Debt is an issue that is more complicated than meets the eye. We’ve said it before - for individuals and business owners, there is a difference between good debt and bad debt. We hope our elected representatives act responsibly, but this issue is likely to remain a concern for some time. The relative level of over 100% debt to GDP in the US is concerning, but keep in mind that Japan has over 200% debt to GDP.  In other words, this may not be an immediate threat to the markets, but we would love to see the fiercely polar political fights simmer down and experience some sense of compromise for the American People.

Let’s see what February news brings.   Wall Street Experience, Main Street Mindset!