Trump 2.0: What the Market is Saying and How We're Responding

The 2024 election results are in and now it is time to plan. There has been an obvious divide in our country over Donald Trump becoming the 47^th president, and it is not our role to take a position. Rather, our role is to understand the facts and assumptions around his presidency and its impact on the markets; not to speculate about what “could” happen, but rather digest what does happen. We all have our personal feelings about the results which dictate whether we view a bright or dire future. It will be some time before we know what the lasting impact of the election will be, our goal is to be fully engaged in the “now”, to monitor the new and market and to relate any changes back to what it means for our clients’ finances.

What we find to be very interesting is that while numerous established polls predicted this presidential election to be a dead heat, the betting markets predicted a Trump win. Admittedly less “scientific” than the many polling services, they turned out to be the most accurate predictor. This is just one great example that the next four years may be difficult to predict by normal measures.

The markets have had a week to digest the results, and there are some clear winners and losers. The goal of this update is to highlight what has changed from our past commentaries, what the market is telling us now that we have the results, and how this impacts our thinking and strategy looking forward.

What has changed?

While there may be social changes on the horizon, not as much as you might think has changed from the market’s perspective:

Economy: The economy is doing very well. We still have a low unemployment rate and solid GDP growth. Economists have expressed concerns that Trump’s tariff policies and deportation plans may cause major declines since growth and could lead to higher unemployment. The market seems to be concerned but is also sending a message that they think Trump’s actions will be less extreme than the rhetoric.

Central Banks: Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has made it clear that he will not be influenced by Trump. Trump has made statements in the past that elected leaders should be able to have sway on the Federal Reserve’s policies. If he could, Trump would push for more cuts to help fuel the economy. Overall, we don’t think this is going to have much impact in the near term.

Inflation: The greatest risk to Trump’s policies is higher inflation. Tariffs are likely to lead to price increases, and a deportation program would lead to fewer jobs being filled, possible wage inflation, and prices spiking in industries with high numbers of undocumented workers (construction is one of these industries, with one-third of construction workers being undocumented).

Bond Yields: The yield on the 10-year treasury bond increased sharply ahead of the election. The initial response to the election results was a spike, but in the days following the election, the yield on the 10-year moved back to where it started before the election. While its future is hard to predict in the short term, there is more risk that yields spike on inflation concerns than the chance that yields decline.

What is the market telling us after the results?

The broad rally is telling us they believe some of Trump’s campaign promises, but not all of them. As one commentator put it, “It is as if the market is believing whatever it wants to believe. Since Trump says so much when campaigning, it is hard to know what to take seriously and what to dismiss. It is like a choose-your-own-adventure policy word salad.”

Tax cuts likely to be extended. One policy the market seems to believe is that Trump will extend the tax cuts that were set to expire in 2025. This would be good for corporations and corporate profits. This may be the simplest and most plausible reason for the market’s steep rise after the election. This also has a major impact on tax and estate planning strategies for individuals. As we gain more clarity, we will have more communication and commentary to update everyone. For now, stay tuned...

Regulation is likely to be less strict under a Trump Administration. U.S. banks have had a steep rally, along with midsize companies that might be take-over targets for larger companies. The Biden/Harris administration had an aggressive antitrust approach to regulation, and after the banking issues with SVB and Signature bank, the expectations were for significant regulation hurdles for the banking sector. Trump is expected to be much laxer. Another beneficiary has been Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. Trump made waves by being very pro-crypto on the campaign trail.

Tariffs are likely, but the market seems to think it might be more selective than sweeping. Companies that have a large import business have been hurt since the election. A good example is Nike and other retailers that import goods from abroad. Another loser since the election are foreign companies that sell a lot of goods in America; two easy examples are Luis Vuitton and European automakers.

Defense spending is likely to remain high. Defense sector stocks have benefitted since the election on the anticipation that Trump will not cut defense spending. These stocks have been rallying for some time, so nothing too exciting on this topic.

Drill baby, drill. Clean energy stocks such as solar companies have sold off sharply given Trump’s pro-oil talk and his skepticism of alternative energy. Oil and natural gas companies have gotten a boost despite the commodities not moving up on the news.

Tesla has seen a huge bounce. One commentator said it perfectly, “Elon Musk is the best trader of the year. He spent 120 million dollars helping Trump in the campaign, and his net worth increased by an estimated 70 billion dollars.” The thought process is that Musk is in Trump’s inner circle and will have influence on benefits Tesla might receive from the government.

How is this impacting our thinking?

As I mentioned earlier, not much has changed (yet) from a market perspective. The market had predicted Trump would win before the election, so many of the trends we were following pre-election continue to play out. Our biggest concern is that the market might be getting ahead of itself in anticipating these policies and their potential impact. We don’t have immediate concern around that; the strength of the market breakout is clear, and things don’t usually turn around on a dime after a big news event.

What we do promise going forward is that we will remain focused on how things evolve and change as new information, data, and policies roll out. As we have advised over the past 12 months, try not to get emotional in either direction. The healthiest thing to do is to keep your political and investment decisions separate. While we don’t know what the future will bring, we know that we will be here, working as hard as ever to help our clients navigate the uncertainty ahead.

Jordan Kaufman

Chief Investment Officer

Green Ridge Wealth Planning

Notable Trends Entering Year End: 4th Quarter Commentary

The U.S. Stock Market has been roaring this year, up more than 20% year to date.

The Federal Reserve has kicked off a rate-cut cycle with a half a percent cut in September. The market is expecting another rate cut in November and more rate cuts in 2025.

China went through an aggressive policy shift to jump start their economy and markets. The Chinese stock market has been one of the worst performing post-COVID. These policy changes included a rate cut, stimulus, and removing restrictions and regulations.

The stock market has performed well so far this year, and with an upcoming election and global uncertainty, people are wondering what will happen next. Many tend to believe that gravity will soon take hold and bring about a big correction. We think it is best to be careful about letting imaginations run wild, and instead focus on what we are seeing rather than what we are thinking.

A good portion of the rally earlier this year was celebrating the decline of inflation and chants of a “soft landing” where the Federal Reserve successfully stopped inflation without destroying the economy. At the beginning of last quarter, we received some economic data that pointed to a slowdown. The market got spooked, anticipating a “hard landing”, where the economy would suffer from the fight against inflation. Concerns grew about a possible recession. Recently, that data has improved, and we are back to talking about a soft landing… if you are feeling manic from the back and forth, we are with you! But it is typical for emotions to bounce between euphoria and despair in the middle of a market cycle. Just like the show Game of Thrones, things tend to get weird and complicated in the middle with a lot of head fakes.

Three big positives that investors should be thinking about:

In case you missed it, China made a large announcement this week. They cut short-term interest rates, announced a planned two trillion-yuan stimulus (~$285 billion US dollars), reduced the reserve requirement for banks, lifted real estate restrictions, and talked about implementing fiscal measures to focus on consumers. It seems the Chinese leadership recognizes there is a problem and are serious about turning things around. Some pundits have called this “the bazooka approach”, or you might call it “kitchen sink stimulus.” Either way, when one of the largest economies in the world goes all in on growth, it is an important piece of news that I would not ignore.
The Federal Reserve also had a big announcement this month when they cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps). While the market fully predicted an interest rate cut, we weren’t sure if they would cut 25 bps or 50 bps. The fact that they chose 50 bps has been interpreted as an attempt to get interest rates back to neutral faster than some had anticipated. It also shows that they are not as concerned with inflation, and more focused on growth. Either way, we have entered a rate-cutting cycle and there is no recession or major event to which the Fed is reacting. The market has reacted very favorably in the past when they cut for stimulus reasons and not to cure a crisis.
The election is nearing an end (thank goodness), we only have a little more than a month to go. We have been saying for a while that the market tends to like closure on the issue and is less concerned with the results. Once we know the outcome, investment managers will feel a little more confident deploying money. They have more conviction in the narrative and move forward accordingly.

Interest Rates are Coming Down:

One of the negative consequences of the interest rate-cutting cycle is that you will no longer get 5% on Treasury Bills, CDs, and savings accounts. As interest rates go down, those options will be less appealing. So, what happens to the mountain of cash sitting in savings, CDs, and Treasuries? They tend to find a new home, and that new home tends to be stocks, bonds, and real estate.

What you will see unfold over the next 12 months is going to be the adult commerce version of musical chairs. As interest rates fall, people will jump out to other assets, and as those assets rise, people will feel more inclined to jump out of cash. This has the potential to become a vicious cycle to the upside and if you ask me, the recipe is just right to create a bubble in the future (declining interest rates, stimulative efforts, and just a pinch of A.I. euphoria).

If you are one of those people sitting on a lot of cash and wondering what to do about it, the question I would ask is how you would feel in the likely three outcomes. One outcome is the market keeps going, never looks back and in two years is hitting fresh highs day after day. Second, is that the market turns course right here, drops by 20 to 30%, before rebounding and moving on at a more muted pace. Or third, is the market just keeps trudging along and going up, and you either chose to hop on now or waited a little longer.

The point of that little exercise is to highlight the concept: “think about what can go wrong, but then spend EQUAL time thinking about what can go right!”. That is the problem most people run into; they only see the risk and don’t jump on opportunities when they present themselves. That, or they wait for perfect conditions where everything lines up and there is little to no risk present. Of course, we have the other side of the pendulum where people will spend no time thinking about the risks and only think about how rich a particular investment will make them. They too should spend time thinking about the other side. The key word here is equal; spend the same time on the good outcome as you do on the bad outcome. This works for life, not just investments. Give it a try, let me know how it works out for you!

Jordan Kaufman

Chief Investment Officer

Green Ridge Wealth Planning

Green Ridge Wealth Planning, LLC is a registered investment adviser. The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment / tax advice. The investment / tax strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment / tax strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. You are responsible for consulting your own investment and/or tax advisor as to the consequences associated with any investment.

The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of AUTHOR, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of Green Ridge Wealth Planning, LLC, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

September Commentary

Wow! A lot has changed in a month! At the beginning of August, the stock market (S&P 500) was in the middle of what would become a 10% drop, and here we are at the end of the month back at the highs. The market isn’t leaving people a lot of time to think and ponder, and if you were on vacation, you might have missed the whole thing. Luckily, we saw this as an opportunity to pounce and picked up some great securities during the decline, setting us up for some great returns down the road!

To note:

The odds of a recession are greater as the economy shows some signs of slowing.
Concern is increasing that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve….. again.
Interest rates on 10-year Treasuries are about the same (~3.9%) as at the beginning of the month.
High Quality (HQ) bonds are starting to act like risk diversifiers. When stocks go down in price, HQ bonds go up in price. This is good and the way it should be, but it hasn’t been that way in a while.
U.S. Stocks are up ~20% year to date.

There are a couple of things we want to unpack here. The odds of recession have increased slightly. We talked a lot about this in our August Investment Committee webinar. We are seeing a couple data points that are going in an unfavorable direction, including jobless claims, industrial production, and housing starts. We are also seeing improving data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which means inflation is pretty contained at this time. This opens the door for the Federal Reserve to normalize interest rates.

The market is predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates with 100% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool, a popular tool used to track the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate. 68% of the market thinks they will cut by 25 basis points, and the other 32% think they will cut by 50 basis points. These odds seem about right, but the key takeaway is that we are likely entering a Fed rate cut cycle. While the length and depth of this cycle will be driven by how the economy and inflation react, expectations are that it will last into next year and flatten out the yield curve. This is generally good for stocks, if everything goes as planned.

With respect to the election, the question to ask is, does Fed policy matter more than who is in office? Not an easy question, but this should highlight that the presidential election is not the only variable influencing markets. This is why we say so often that investing with politics is not the most profitable strategy. This election is likely to be close all the way up until the night of the election, so until there is more clarity, we believe the Fed is the main actor to watch on the Washington D.C. stage.

Some people are referring to the economy now as “normalizing” after enduring Covid, major business shifts, supply chain issues, and high inflation. This also means that people are seeing markets act more normal. Take for example, the relationship in price change for high quality bonds and stocks. When stocks run into trouble, investors tend to hide out in high-quality assets like bonds. When inflation was running rampant or when interest rates were zero, this relationship was less predictable. We welcome a more “normalized” market.

Lastly, the market has been defying gravity this year, and strong markets leading into the 4^th quarter tend to end strong. But with the addition of an election, global instability, and Fed policy added to the recipe, you never know where things will head. The promise we make is we will be watching closely, not taking anything for granted, and making the shifts we think are appropriate to weather any possible turbulence we might face on our journey.

Jordan Kaufman

Chief Investment Officer

Green Ridge Wealth Planning

Mid-Year Commentary: Navigating the Market

Summer is upon us, and with that comes graduation parties, family vacations, and BBQs with friends. It also marks the year’s midpoint, which is a good time to look around and see where we stand. Please feel free to share this with anyone in your world that would find it interesting.

We have some great things happening at GRWP!

Before we get into the markets, here are some quick notes on internal happenings.

We are pleased to report that Inc. Magazine has recognized GRWP as one of the best workplaces for 2024! I think so, but glad I’m not alone in that opinion. What has been great is that we value our team so much and when we talked to them about the recognition, it turns out it isn't about us at all. It's about the work we do for our clients and the passion we all share.

Bobby’s podcast, Business Unchained, continues to release great episodes featuring fascinating guests and stories of successes, failures and their business-success mindsets. If you haven’t checked it out, it is worth a listen. His podcast already has over 25,000 downloads, so again, I’m not alone in that opinion. You can check it out on Spotify, Apple, YouTube, Instagram or any of your other favorite platforms.

I also want to give a big shout out to our interns this summer, Kelly and Devan. They are doing a fantastic job, are super smart, and are even good at ping pong. They fit in great with the team and we are thrilled to have them. As they say, birds of a feather flock together.

Lastly, Bobby and I are still relishing being recognized by a board of peers as 2024 NJBIZ Leaders in Finance. As I wrote above, we love what we do.

State of the Market:

As I sit and type this, the S&P 500 is up 17.4% this year! After returning 26% in 2023, this is certainly shaping up to be a stronger year than many expected. Even with how optimistic we were entering 2024, we are surprised at not only the size of the move up, but also how tranquil it has been. Outside of a slight pullback in April, this market has marched almost straight up, having a positive return in the other five months.

Even if you live under a rock, I’m sure you have heard about Artificial Intelligence (AI) or had your hairdresser or barber ask you about Nvidia stock. If AI wasn’t part of your investment thesis this year, you are unlikely to feel much of the benefit of the rise in the S&P 500. Like 2023, the large-cap growth companies have been the driving force behind the rise.

To Do’s Before any Journey:

My family and I got away for a quick vacation recently. As we were heading for the airport, I turned to my wife and said, “traffic isn’t that bad!” No sooner had I uttered the words, we found ourselves at a dead stop (I’m sure readers can relate!). Luckily, my parents taught me to always leave three hours before a flight, so we still made it in plenty of time.

If we get down to it, most investors’ real concern with the market at this moment is a pullback, whether it be major or minor. While we have been cruising for almost two years without traffic it feels like someone is going to say the fateful phrase “this market isn’t that bad!” and then, just like that, woosh!

Like a trip to the airport, a traffic jam shouldn’t be a major issue if we plan properly, leave ourselves time for a slowdown, and with some options to change routes if things get bad on the road.

Since I love analogies, let’s see what a road trip looks like compared to a slowdown in the markets.

Plan properly: When taking a drive, we check the GPS and plan our route. Smart investors do the same by planning their finances and figuring out the optimal path forward. If maxing our 401k and saving 10% of our income gets us comfortably to retirement in five years with mild traffic, then we shouldn’t worry about mild traffic.
Leave time for a slowdown: Again, this goes with appropriate planning, but different routes tend to have different degrees of traffic. I might get stuck behind a tractor when visiting my sister in Vermont but, when we head to Long Island the city traffic could be a whole other animal. Knowing how your portfolio will react in different types of market environments is crucial to knowing how different slowdowns will affect your plan. Using scenario analysis, we can estimate this and build that into the plan.
Leave options to change routes: Sometimes I might take the slower route with more exit options if I am worried about traffic; we took the parkway instead of the turnpike for this exact reason. For markets, this translates to selecting investments that can be easily changed and don’t have hard lock ups, or what we in the business call “liquidity preference.” If you are worried about markets and the future of the economy, then now might not be the time to buy that piece of real estate or invest in that private equity fund which doesn’t have an exit ramp when you might want one. Preferring liquid investments that can be easily sold if things go awry can not only help avoid major slowdowns, but it can also help you rest your head knowing that you can always pivot. If you do want to take the route that offers fewer options to pivot, make sure you are properly compensated by saving significant time on your journey: in markets, that would equate to those investments offering significantly higher returns than their more liquid counterparts.

Below are some slowdowns to watch for and a few “what ifs” we have heard from clients:

The economy weakens, dragging down the strong market. This is like your classic traffic slowdown; it will probably only add ten or fifteen minutes onto our trip. If the economy weakens, inflation will likely fall as well, and the Federal Reserve is more likely to cut interest rates. This will help us gain time on the back end. In this event, we should continue our path and look for opportunities to save time in the future.
The real estate market takes a dive and commercial real estate gets the punch in the nose we have been warned about for years. This might just be the classic slowdown from above, but if the commercial real estate market corrects in a sudden manner, it could come with a few fender benders in the slowdown. The question really comes down to how orderly it all is, and so far, any slowdowns have been controlled. We should keep cognizant that this risk exists and might cause more pain than #1.
The election causes havoc. We really don’t know what is going to happen in this election, and it seems to get more chaotic as it nears. Depending on the outcome, the market will react differently. I could see international developed markets responding poorly to a Trump victory as he threatens the tradition of NATO. However, the U.S. market may react positively at the thought of continued tax breaks by extending the current tax law into 2025. I would expect a continuation of the same policies for Biden but starting from higher valuations and with the possible expiration of the tax cuts in 2025. International markets might respond more positively to a second Biden term as NATO will be under less pressure.
Global political instability spills over into more war. Most notably is the risk of China invading Taiwan. That would be like a full blown 20 car pileup, especially since many of the highflyers of today’s market depend on semiconductors and continued technology investment. Taiwan is the global epicenter for semiconductors, and until the CHIPS act brings manufacturing back to the U.S., this is probably the greatest risk to the market!
Inflation moves significantly higher from here. We see this as more unlikely, since leading inflation indicators point toward downward pressure, but it is a risk. This poses a unique threat since markets would clearly go down along with bonds, and it would likely look like a 2022 repeat. Additionally, the Federal Reserve could not cut rates and might even find themselves raising rates. This type of scenario would cause a major reshuffling of our current positioning, but this should come with reasonable warning, so we hope and expect to have the time to make the appropriate changes if this comes to pass.

We will post some blogs on the website diving a bit deeper into the listed potential slowdown scenarios and things we are looking at. In the meantime, we hope people are enjoying friends, weather, kids back from school, kids at camp, and all that summer fun! So, kick back, relax, and know we got you!

Jordan Kaufman

Chief Investment Officer

Green Ridge Wealth Planning

June Commentary

After a tough April (down 4.2% on the S&P 500), markets had a huge recovery in May. The S&P 500 rose 4.8% in the month. As of the end of May, the S&P 500 is up just over 10%. The main thing to highlight here is how quickly things snapped back. We barely had time to digest the April decline before the S&P 500 was back to flirting with new highs.

Bond rates declined for the first half of June but were relatively unchanged for the month overall. We did see a broadening of stocks participating in the rally in May, including small cap stocks and value stocks.

Economic data has been a touch softer (job gains slowed significantly in April), and inflation has seemed stickier (the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, remains around 3.5%). Economic growth has generally slowed in 2024 from the high growth we saw in 2023, but it remains positive, and unemployment remains at historic lows.

Because of the mixed signals in economic data, Wall Street seems to be obsessed with trying to guess the Federal Reserve’s next move. Traders expected numerous cuts in 2024 at the beginning of the year, but now anticipate only one cut. At GRWP, we don’t find it very useful to guess the Federal Reserve’s next move. Instead of trying to guess the next move, we think it is more beneficial to focus on the core items at hand.

The main driver this year continues to be the excitement around Artificial Intelligence (AI). Commentators are starting to make comparisons between AI and the mania that surrounded the internet in the 1990s. While we might not agree, it is fair to consider this concept and give a moment of pause. As we look back at all the promises that were made in the early days of the internet, we must acknowledge that many of them have been fulfilled. But during that same period, we saw the crash of 2000, the financial crisis in 2008, and all the other memorable bumps along the way. Today, the stocks that helped usher in the internet are now some of the most profitable and successful companies of our time; and we are sure the companies that are ushering AI will enjoy the same level of success. But similar to the internet experience, this road may be bumpy.